by Clodagh Harrington and Alex Waddan
Want to read more on Clodagh and Alex’s research on Trump’s presidency?
Trump vs Biden reflects on areas where Biden reinforced elements of Trumpism, the 2024 election and the opening six months of Trump’s 2nd term.
During the recent US campaign trail, Donald Trump told supporters to ‘pretend I’m on the ballot’. On Tuesday, voters took him at his word. The 2026 midterms handed Democrats both the House and the Senate, and pushed Republicans out of territory they had held for decades. So what do the results tell us?
In Trump v Biden, we argued that Trump was the dominant political figure of his age. The 2026 midterms do not overturn that judgement. If anything, they confirm it, because this was an election about him.
What has changed is that he is now a losing figure.
A 2026 midterms wave driven by Trump
Nearly half of voters in one exit poll said opposition to the president was a reason for their vote. The night seems to have been driven more by anti-Trump sentiment than by any great affection for the Democrats.
The scale was striking. Democrats needed a net gain of four Senate seats. By Wednesday afternoon they held 54, with two races still uncalled. In the House they flipped at least 29 districts, and the final gain may be larger. Full results will take time. Mississippi has thousands of absentee ballots to verify, and California will, as usual, take weeks to confirm its House races.
The backdrop was the war with Iran, launched in February, and its effect on prices. A New York Times/Siena poll put Trump’s approval at a second-term low of 37%. James Carville’s old maxim still holds: it’s the economy, stupid.
Turnout or switching? The 2026 midterms in the South
The swing was national, but the regional variation was significant, and the results in the South were nothing short of astonishing. James Talarico became the first Texas Democrat elected to the Senate since 1988. Democrats also flipped Senate seats in Kansas and South Carolina.
One key question is whether this was differential turnout, with Democrats voting and Republicans staying at home, or voters switching parties. In the South, Democratic turnout looks close to presidential levels. Talarico won more than 500,000 more votes than Kamala Harris did in Texas in 2024. Ken Paxton won around two million fewer than Trump. In Mississippi, whatever the final result, the Democratic Senate candidate, Colom, is on track roughly to match Harris’s 2024 vote.
Elsewhere the picture was different. In Maine, Troy Jackson toppled Susan Collins, but with about 50,000 fewer votes than Harris won in the state. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed polled around 200,000 fewer. These were important wins, but the Democratic surge was softer in purple states.
What the 2026 midterms mean for 2028
Midterms are poor predictors. The 1994 and 2010 waves did not make Presidents of Bob Dole or Mitt Romney. But there will be no incumbent in 2028, so 2006 and 2014 may be better guides. Republicans never recovered from 2006 before losing the White House in 2008.
The harder lesson is for the GOP. Trump’s appeal does not transfer down the ballot: his hand-picked Senate candidates in Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia all lost. Yet the party has bound itself to him. Does JD Vance double down on being Trump, with a little more polish? Does Marco Rubio try to resurrect the Marco of 2016? Is there now a lane for a Nikki Haley figure, a party loyalist who has kept some distance from Trump?
Democrats face choices too. Josh Shapiro’s re-election in Pennsylvania was expected, but he built a broad coalition that seems to have helped Democratic House candidates over the line. Jon Ossoff was another big winner in Georgia, where Democrats also took the governorship. A crowded 2028 Democratic field looks likely.
In the House, a bigger majority may give Hakeem Jeffries more room to manage the left flank. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez must decide whether to nudge the leadership leftward from inside, as Bernie Sanders often has, or to stay with a purity-first wing that mirrors the Republican hardliners who made life so chalenging for GOP Speakers.
After the 2026 midterms: a test for checks and balances
From January, Trump’s presidency changes. House Democrats have promised subpoenas on ‘day one’. A Democratic Senate will control confirmations, including to the federal courts. Trump himself predicted that losing the midterms would mean a third impeachment. Whether Democrats take that road, or focus on affordability ahead of 2028, will be their first big decision.
It is too early to write off Trumpism. Midterm waves recede: Barack Obama lost 63 House seats in 2010 and was comfortably re-elected in 2012. But for now, voters have applied the brakes. Trump remains the figure around whom American politics turns. Understanding him matters as much as ever, even as he becomes a lame duck.
About the authors
Dr Clodagh Harrington is Lecturer in History and Politics at University College Cork, where she researches US presidential power and impeachment. She is series co-editor of Edinburgh University Press’s New Perspectives on the American Presidency.
Alex Waddan is Associate Professor of Politics at Leicester University, and has published widely on the presidency and US social policy. Together they are the authors of Obama v Trump (2020) and Trump v Biden (2026), both published by Edinburgh University Press.
